Minimum stopover duration

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## Mean chain execution time: 3.3 seconds.
## Total execution time: 3.9 seconds.
##                mean      lower     upper f      rhat ess_bulk ess_tail
## b[1,1]   11.0903457  5.4113035 17.951254 1 1.0017828     4227     2358
## b[2,1]   17.6877547 10.5518373 25.789824 1 0.9999123     3628     2769
## b[3,1]    4.1892116  2.3199880  6.461490 1 1.0023045     4124     2870
## b[4,1]    0.6904926  0.1114299  1.616263 1 1.0024877     3208     2732
## b[5,1]    4.1388571  2.3247511  6.331265 1 1.0000834     4198     2792
## b[1,2]   11.5087079  6.4688607 17.452973 1 1.0022310     3227     2691
## b[2,2]   13.0084852  8.3258905 18.145453 1 1.0010145     3728     2674
## b[3,2]    4.3266484  2.9546199  5.891555 1 0.9999789     4337     2873
## b[4,2]    3.1021919  2.1240040  4.219345 1 1.0002575     3590     2068
## b[5,2]    4.3699095  1.6052572  7.924506 1 1.0002376     3020     2774
## mu[1]     5.0191716  0.6862893 11.270064 1 1.0029676     2564     2039
## mu[2]     6.3591451  2.2104520 10.463468 1 1.0014669     2174     1571
## sigma[1]  4.3658624  1.5598926  9.941620 1 1.0016609     2354     2695
## sigma[2]  2.3292987  1.2939312  3.870950 1 0.9998708     1896     2033
## phi       1.2786004  0.8672450  1.672700 1 1.0004187     2943     2831

Inspect model parameter convergence

Checking chains for convergence.

Departure relative to night length

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## All 4 chains finished successfully.
## Mean chain execution time: 2.6 seconds.
## Total execution time: 2.9 seconds.
##              mean     lower     upper       f      rhat ess_bulk ess_tail
## b[1,1] 0.90708315 0.8741960 0.9426960 1.00000 1.0005681     4054     2703
## b[2,1] 0.04329791 0.0128743 0.0746901 0.99100 1.0014412     3080     2648
## b[3,1] 0.18411134 0.1493970 0.2169920 1.00000 0.9999249     4515     2815
## b[4,1] 0.13032191 0.0926153 0.1670920 1.00000 1.0001684     4043     2830
## b[5,1] 0.16183025 0.1362390 0.1857840 1.00000 1.0013437     4356     3264
## b[1,2] 0.94920977 0.9189060 0.9776930 1.00000 1.0018159     4051     2818
## b[2,2] 0.15354951 0.0885950 0.2202440 1.00000 1.0012831     3541     2835
## b[3,2] 0.20383044 0.1752470 0.2354720 1.00000 1.0005053     4365     2905
## b[4,2] 0.16892702 0.1451700 0.1937480 1.00000 1.0001138     3954     3351
## b[5,2] 0.17934000 0.1064400 0.2602980 0.99975 0.9999066     3836     3584
## sigma  0.05190700 0.0377031 0.0656711 1.00000 1.0023953     1884     2015
## v      1.27651697 0.8752140 1.6893100 1.00000 1.0019411     1969     2128

Inspect model parameter convergence

Checking chains for convergence.

Multistate Model

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## Chain 1 finished in 3754.9 seconds.
## 
## All 4 chains finished successfully.
## Mean chain execution time: 3635.9 seconds.
## Total execution time: 3755.5 seconds.
##                     mean       lower       upper       f      rhat ess_bulk
## mean_psi[1]   0.08437252   0.0439415   0.1257970 1.00000 1.0015657     2813
## mean_psi[2]   0.07431467   0.0573016   0.0924179 1.00000 0.9997408     3328
## mean_psi[3]   0.22791648   0.1760350   0.2820320 1.00000 0.9995929     3190
## mean_psi[4]   0.37389451   0.2858020   0.4599920 1.00000 1.0012685     2841
## mean_psi[5]   0.15527992   0.0888603   0.2244240 1.00000 1.0008647     2799
## mu1[1]       -2.43143650  -3.0066600  -1.8922200 1.00000 1.0015405     2813
## mu1[2]       -2.53298410  -2.7907900  -2.2758700 1.00000 0.9997689     3328
## mu1[3]       -1.22957582  -1.5434500  -0.9344060 1.00000 0.9995930     3190
## mu1[4]       -0.52232277  -0.9158630  -0.1603730 0.98500 1.0012134     2841
## mu1[5]       -1.73058522  -2.2333500  -1.1616400 1.00000 1.0008646     2799
## b_u1_l[1]     6.40118829  -8.9335100  21.7914000 0.75100 1.0008931     3818
## b_u1_l[2]     9.61406161  -4.0047700  22.6398000 0.87550 1.0015169     3697
## b_u1_l[3]     4.28448228  -9.9452400  18.2895000 0.69550 0.9994359     4135
## b_u1_l[4]     3.09490290 -12.3284000  19.1370000 0.63050 0.9999447     3398
## b_u1_l[5]    -7.19067591 -23.2934000   8.7395700 0.76900 1.0002110     4382
## b_u1_q[1]    -5.54818188 -20.8875000   9.1687200 0.72100 1.0008941     3992
## b_u1_q[2]   -12.03756579 -24.0760000  -0.1721970 0.95500 1.0020762     4262
## b_u1_q[3]   -11.43484349 -25.6090000   2.3604900 0.91350 1.0013399     3825
## b_u1_q[4]     1.57225218 -12.8970000  16.7739000 0.56800 1.0012511     4239
## b_u1_q[5]     4.05915517 -10.7982000  20.0100000 0.66550 0.9997284     3887
## b_v1_l[1]     5.99384267 -10.7700000  21.7063000 0.72250 1.0000229     3526
## b_v1_l[2]     7.25132919  -7.1420500  20.8087000 0.79750 0.9998429     3454
## b_v1_l[3]     7.87206085  -6.4842200  22.5379000 0.81175 1.0013486     3407
## b_v1_l[4]    11.21552501  -4.1620000  24.8916000 0.89850 1.0019624     3927
## b_v1_l[5]     7.37020486  -7.0439200  22.0587000 0.79425 1.0062711     3976
## b_v1_q[1]     8.26686455  -6.8449700  25.7752000 0.80375 1.0001686     3780
## b_v1_q[2]     4.76398683  -9.6319700  19.7689000 0.70225 1.0013072     3788
## b_v1_q[3]     2.11121024 -12.3047000  16.3724000 0.59025 1.0003861     4130
## b_v1_q[4]   -10.04502867 -23.1225000   3.4585500 0.89700 1.0011525     3298
## b_v1_q[5]    -8.32565409 -23.3526000   7.1966200 0.81950 1.0006241     4402
## b_p1[1]       0.05321837  -0.3478080   0.4668830 0.57950 1.0003833     3332
## b_p1[2]       0.35962635   0.1357770   0.5829440 0.99625 1.0008020     3033
## b_p1[3]       0.00449856  -0.2951810   0.3317870 0.50525 1.0009389     3650
## b_p1[4]      -0.02915397  -0.4886840   0.4354950 0.53950 1.0028831     3054
## b_p1[5]      -0.33231956  -0.7008940   0.0324338 0.93275 1.0017896     4108
## b_h1[1]       0.09519020  -0.4667660   0.6720500 0.58625 1.0004327     2844
## b_h1[2]      -0.44152719  -0.7112590  -0.1870090 0.99800 0.9997231     3542
## b_h1[3]      -0.17334074  -0.4765350   0.1091820 0.83275 1.0023944     3104
## b_h1[4]       0.04444568  -0.3777900   0.4819590 0.56550 1.0008107     3117
## b_h1[5]      -0.90125838  -1.4261300  -0.3530420 0.99750 1.0012067     2868
## b_r1         -1.36828130  -2.0793600  -0.7039560 1.00000 1.0008693     3281
## mean_chi[1]   0.47586613   0.2809570   0.6735170 1.00000 1.0009914     3989
## mean_chi[2]   0.68652195   0.5751990   0.7981140 1.00000 1.0003538     3389
## mean_chi[3]   0.48983852   0.3656020   0.6148680 1.00000 1.0001250     3486
## mean_chi[4]   0.29070517   0.1533450   0.4140150 1.00000 1.0017861     3808
## mean_chi[5]   0.80850927   0.6924920   0.9418430 1.00000 1.0007105     3669
## mu2[1]       -0.10304486  -0.9397200   0.7241360 0.57700 1.0010138     3989
## mu2[2]        0.80315848   0.2397320   1.2987700 0.99425 1.0004109     3389
## mu2[3]       -0.04218510  -0.5511330   0.4678220 0.54275 1.0001217     3486
## mu2[4]       -0.92475662  -1.5592800  -0.2404860 0.99500 1.0020347     3808
## mu2[5]        1.52636637   0.6580360   2.4472400 0.99875 1.0007105     3669
## b_u2_l       -7.65381082 -22.0507000   6.0688300 0.81750 1.0019055     3676
## b_u2_q       -5.71999876 -19.6989000   8.4956300 0.74050 1.0010432     4773
## b_v2_l        8.19166254  -6.0547800  21.9645000 0.83525 1.0017802     3945
## b_v2_q       -2.57258239 -16.2801000  11.2441000 0.61025 1.0003850     3853
## pX_A          0.49818082   0.4023240   0.5849710 1.00000 1.0010071     3173
## pX_N          0.46095713   0.3745670   0.5458510 1.00000 1.0021763     4338
## pC_A          0.96599875   0.9137950   1.0000000 1.00000 1.0007370     1748
## pC_N          0.93999643   0.8707000   0.9999470 1.00000 1.0003504     2449
## Noff         99.00200000  83.0000000 113.0000000 1.00000 1.0004033     3358
## Nrel          0.53805434   0.4510870   0.6141300 1.00000 1.0004997     3358
##             ess_tail
## mean_psi[1]     2510
## mean_psi[2]     2850
## mean_psi[3]     2951
## mean_psi[4]     2336
## mean_psi[5]     2467
## mu1[1]          2510
## mu1[2]          2850
## mu1[3]          2951
## mu1[4]          2336
## mu1[5]          2467
## b_u1_l[1]       2708
## b_u1_l[2]       2664
## b_u1_l[3]       2989
## b_u1_l[4]       2791
## b_u1_l[5]       2755
## b_u1_q[1]       2755
## b_u1_q[2]       2915
## b_u1_q[3]       2237
## b_u1_q[4]       2607
## b_u1_q[5]       2574
## b_v1_l[1]       2924
## b_v1_l[2]       2695
## b_v1_l[3]       2281
## b_v1_l[4]       2669
## b_v1_l[5]       2799
## b_v1_q[1]       2655
## b_v1_q[2]       2755
## b_v1_q[3]       2627
## b_v1_q[4]       2673
## b_v1_q[5]       2789
## b_p1[1]         2548
## b_p1[2]         3128
## b_p1[3]         2665
## b_p1[4]         2600
## b_p1[5]         2780
## b_h1[1]         2446
## b_h1[2]         2332
## b_h1[3]         2859
## b_h1[4]         3031
## b_h1[5]         2633
## b_r1            2403
## mean_chi[1]     2491
## mean_chi[2]     2916
## mean_chi[3]     2314
## mean_chi[4]     2671
## mean_chi[5]     2270
## mu2[1]          2491
## mu2[2]          2916
## mu2[3]          2314
## mu2[4]          2671
## mu2[5]          2270
## b_u2_l          2812
## b_u2_q          2285
## b_v2_l          2745
## b_v2_q          2738
## pX_A            2343
## pX_N            3215
## pC_A            1358
## pC_N            2096
## Noff            2946
## Nrel            2946

Effects

Departure timing

Departure decision

Predict departure decision

Predicted probability for offshore flights for individuals with unknown routing.

Inspect model parameter convergence

Checking chains for convergence.